Published: Sunday, May 21, 1989

Section: SPORTS

Page: 1D

Based on the calculations of a

UNCC professor of probability and

statistics, the Charlotte Hornets have

about a 40 percent shot at getting the

fifth pick in the upcoming draft lottery

- the worst result the Hornets can

get.

Dr. Harold Reiter of the UNCC

department of mathematics figures

the

Hornets` chances are five in 12 (42

percent) of receiving the fifth pick,

one in four (25 percent) of receiving

the fourth pick and one in nine (11

percent each) of receiving the third,

second or first picks.

Under lottery rules, picks four

through nine are arranged in reverse

order

of record for the teams not drawn for

the first, second and third picks.

Reiter`s calculation is based on the

lottery rule that all nine teams

involved have an equal chance of

winning the top three picks through a

blind

draw. The Hornets - with this past

season`s second-worst record -

could get

the fourth pick only if they are not

among the top three picks, but the

Miami Heat is. Miami had the NBA`s

worst record, so the Heat

automatically gets the fourth pick if it

is not one of the top three.

If neither Charlotte nor Miami are

drawn among the top three picks,

Charlotte automatically gets the fifth

pick.

Reiter figures there are 362,880

different ways the nine logos can

come out of the NBA`s revolving

plastic bubble when the envelopes

are drawn.

Reiter, an avid Hornets fan, agrees

with Hornets general manager Carl

Scheer - Duke forward Danny Ferry

should be the Hornets` top selection.

SOURCE: By RICK BONNELL,

Staff Writer